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March 2025 Market Smart:
Growth in 7 out of 8 Capitals
After a three-month downturn that saw values slip 0.4%, March’s 0.3% national increase signals an improving market. Gains were broad-based across most capital cities – with every capital except Darwin (down 0.1%) and Regional Victoria (no change) posting positive results. Notably, Melbourne and Hobart both recorded a 0.4% monthly rise, breaking a prolonged period of decline. Sydney also contributed with a 0.3% increase, driven by higher-end properties.
Key take aways
Seven capitals recorded growth
National dwelling values rose 0.4% in March, marking the second consecutive monthly gain after a brief downturn. Darwin led with a 1.0% jump, while Hobart was the only capital to decline (-0.4%).
Sydney and Melbourne extend recovery
Sydney’s values lifted 0.3%, putting the city just 1.4% below its all-time peak. Melbourne climbed 0.5% and, although still 5.6% under its record high, appears to be stabilising.
Regional markets maintain edge
Combined regional values rose 0.5%, again outpacing the 0.4% increase in the capitals. Parts of Western Australia and Queensland continue to show strong growth.
Rental index up 0.6%
National rents rose by 0.6% in March, matching the previous month’s pace. Tight vacancy rates (1.5%) remain a key factor, although annual rental growth is slowly moderating.
Affordability still an issue
While rate cuts are improving sentiment, high dwelling values relative to incomes mean housing affordability remains stretched.
Supply constraints persist
Construction costs and labour shortages keep new housing supply tight, which could support further price growth in some areas.
Cautious outlook
The prospect of additional rate cuts is bolstering confidence, but higher holding costs and normalising population growth may temper any upswing.
Home Values Bounce Back
After a three-month downturn that saw values slip 0.4%, February’s 0.3% national increase signals an improving market. Gains were broad-based across most capital cities—with every capital except Darwin (down 0.1%) and Regional Victoria (no change) posting positive results. Notably, Melbourne and Hobart both recorded a 0.4% monthly rise, breaking a prolonged period of decline. Sydney also contributed with a 0.3% increase, driven by higher end properties.
Change in dwelling values to end of March 2025
CoreLogic 2025
Regional Markets Continue To Outperform
Regional Australia maintained its strength in February. The combined regional index rose 0.4%, outpacing the performance of capital cities. Over the past three months, regional dwelling values increased by 1.0% compared to a 0.4% decline in the capitals. However, the recovery in Melbourne and Hobart indicates that capital markets in some areas—especially in New South Wales and Victoria—are beginning to close the gap.
Rolling three month change in dwelling values.
Combined capitals v combined regionals.
CoreLogic 2025
Rental Growth Shows Seasonal Uptick
National rents increased by 0.6% in February, marking the strongest monthly gain since May 2024. Although this rise appears to be driven by seasonal factors, annual rental growth is easing, with overall rents up 4.1% over the past year. Sydney and Melbourne have seen their unit rental markets cool significantly from earlier migration-driven booms—dropping from 17.9% and 15.2% annual growth to 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Despite this slowdown, rental yields remain robust, with a national average of 3.7% and the strongest returns observed in Perth (6.4%) and Adelaide (5.1%).
Annual change in rents – Houses
Annual change in rents – Units
Lower Listings Keep Supply Tight
New property listings fell 4.7% year-on-year in February and remain 7.9% below the five-year average. This continued decline in fresh inventory is helping to support price stability, particularly as buyer sentiment improves. Although total advertised stock is 1% higher year-on-year, overall levels remain below historical averages. Some markets, like Sydney (+6.9%), Melbourne (+3.9%), Hobart (+25.2%), and Canberra (+6.8%), have seen increases in listings, while others—Perth (-28%), Adelaide (-33.9%), and Brisbane (-21.5%)—continue to experience significant supply shortages.
Things to Keep an Eye On
Interest Rates
The RBA held rates at 4.1% on the 1 st , citing global trade uncertainty as cause for caution. However, inflation has continued to move in a positive direction:
Australia – MI Trimmed Mean CPI Inflation (Seasonally Adjusted)
Dwelling Approvals
Despite the recent uptick in nominal price values, real dwelling prices have been in decline for some time, which may further hinder a continued expansion of residential building approvals.
Australia – Dwelling Approvals and Prices (Year-end growth)
February 2025 Market Smart:
Growth in 7 out of 8 Capitals
After a three-month downturn that saw values slip 0.4%, March’s 0.3% national increase signals an improving market. Gains were broad-based across most capital cities – with every capital except Darwin (down 0.1%) and Regional Victoria (no change) posting positive results. Notably, Melbourne and Hobart both recorded a 0.4% monthly rise, breaking a prolonged period of decline. Sydney also contributed with a 0.3% increase, driven by higher-end properties.
January 2025 Market Smart:
Growth in 7 out of 8 Capitals
After a three-month downturn that saw values slip 0.4%, March’s 0.3% national increase signals an improving market. Gains were broad-based across most capital cities – with every capital except Darwin (down 0.1%) and Regional Victoria (no change) posting positive results. Notably, Melbourne and Hobart both recorded a 0.4% monthly rise, breaking a prolonged period of decline. Sydney also contributed with a 0.3% increase, driven by higher-end properties.
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