Market Trends
September Market Smart:
Why Spring Has the Market
Back in Gear
National dwelling values rose 0.8% in September, the strongest monthly gain since late 2023.
Tight supply, renewed buyer confidence, and the first rate cuts of the year are combining to drive steady, broad-based growth across Australia’s housing markets.
This month’s Market Smart breaks down the latest data, the factors pushing prices higher, and where the biggest opportunities are emerging for investors.
Key Take Aways
National dwelling values rose 0.8% in September
The fastest monthly growth since October 2023.
Quarterly growth hits 2.2%
Almost double the pace seen in early 2025.
Listings are at record lows
18% below the five-year average nationally, and over 45% down in Perth.
Rents are rising again
The national vacancy rate falling to just 1.4%.
Lower interest rates
Improving consumer sentiment are fuelling renewed demand.
Market Trends: Low Supply Meets Renewed Confidence
Australia’s housing recovery has shifted up a gear heading into spring. September’s 0.8% rise capped the third straight quarter of national growth, with the average home gaining more than $18,000 in value since June.
Despite stretched affordability, low listings and improving borrowing conditions are keeping upward pressure on prices.
Perth, Brisbane, and Darwin are setting the pace, driven by extremely tight supply and robust population growth. Listings in these cities remain 30–50% below average, and sales activity is running 7% above normal levels. That imbalance continues to push values higher.
Regional and Capital Markets Aligned
For the first time this year, growth is evenly spread between capital cities and regional markets.
The combined capitals rose 2.3% over the quarter, while the combined regionals lifted 1.8%, both underpinned by strong migration and affordability-driven demand.
Regional Queensland (+2.7%) and Regional WA (+3.7%) stand out as top performers, reflecting ongoing strength in employment hubs and lifestyle markets.
Cotality, 2025
The Rental Market Tightens Again
National rental vacancies hit a record-low 1.4%, sparking renewed rental growth. Rents rose 1.4% over the quarter, led by Darwin (+2.9%), Hobart (+1.9%), and Perth (+1.7%).
With rental listings still 25% below average, investors are benefiting from both rising values and solid yields, averaging 3.7% nationally, and as high as 7.8% for Darwin units.
While yields have softened slightly as prices rise faster than rents, the overall cash flow environment remains strong.
Cotality, 2025
Cotality, 2025
Policy and Sentiment Are Kicking In
The Home Deposit Guarantee expansion, which launched in late September, is already drawing first-home buyers back into the market.
With entry thresholds lifted and only a 5% deposit required, competition is rising across the lower and mid-price bands, particularly in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Melbourne’s outer suburbs.
This influx of buyers is likely to keep demand buoyant through the rest of spring.
What Smart Investors Should Do
- Target tight-supply markets: Perth, Brisbane, and Darwin continue to show the strongest fundamentals.
- Look for rental strength: Low vacancy markets are the best hedge against rate and price risk.
- Stay active: Momentum is building again, and when sentiment turns positive, waiting on the sidelines can cost growth.
- Plan for 2026 now: The early-cycle recovery phase favours those who enter before competition peaks.
