Investment Strategy

Informational asymmetry, where one party in a transaction possesses more or superior information than the other, is a concept well-documented in economic theory. It can be a big problem, and its effect is felt uniquely within the real estate market – far more than in other asset classes like stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies. Compared to many of these alternative investments, traded in vast quantities across highly regulated and transparent markets, with no informational lag, real estate is inherently unique.

Looking at the latest capital city property figures from CoreLogic, Australian real estate has one obvious outlier. Right now, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain at record high prices, while other cities like Hobart, Canberra and Melbourne are feeling the serious impact of rate hikes, still below their 2022 price peaks. However, astonishingly, Darwin remains 6.6% below its record property market, a level it hasn’t exceeded since May of 2014 – almost a decade ago!

Like any market, property prices are a consequence of supply and demand. For many months now, we’ve heard a similar refrain concerning the ‘chronic undersupply’ of housing across the market. Housing Australia has even forecast a national shortfall of 100,000 homes in just four years’ time. This being true, how is it possible for Melbourne to be oversupplied with property? Based on CoreLogic figures, Melbourne saw 90,000 total property listings across 2023, alongside just 81,203 total sales.

You may have noticed that the narrative surrounding interest rates has begun to shift slightly. For the first few months of this year, the overwhelming consensus was that we’d see some action on rate cuts within the latter half of 2024. We even released an article back on the 11th of March, summarising and commenting upon the big four banks’ predictions for interest rates.